Edits Notebook
Cassandra Etter
2024-11-15
This is the data behind the EDITS work. It follows four steps. For Step 1 I look at uptake rates between 2010 and 2021 in three countries: US, UK and Germany. For the US, I use the PSID which tracks households between 2011- 2021 on a biannual basis. For Germany, I use SOEP which tracks households between 2010- 2021 on an annual basis, and for the UK I use Understanding Society which tracks households between 2010 - 2021 on an annual basis. All data was downloaded in September 2024 and cleaning files are on github.
8 technologies selected are :Internet Access, own a smartphone, Home has Solar, Home switched from Gas/Coal/Wood to electric (fuel switching), Home renovation/ retrofitting, EV/ Hybrid car, Commuting habit (walking, biking), digital skills/ capabilities (daily use of internet).
Note: Significant limitations on technologies surveyed. With better data, I could also do this for smart-meters, air conditioners, etc.
Step 1: Uptake Rates
This provides a snapshot for current uptake across the households assessing heterogeneity across income level.
U.S. Uptake Rates
For the US, I have information for solar ownership, EV/ hybrid ownership, smartphone ownership, internet access, and commute habit. I create an additional variable on fuel switching by looking at heating method and seeing where moved from wood, oil, gas, coal to electric heating. I also create a variable for retrofitting based on home renovations and skills based on survey responses where RP responds they use the internet daily.
Note: Smartphone ownership and digital skills questions were only added to the survey in 2015.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.## Warning: Removed 40 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).## Warning: Removed 40 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Removed 40 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
Clean heating is interesting in that high income households had less electric only and marginally increased over 2011 - 2021 time period, though they still did increase within decile 9 and 10. Solar panel infiltration is lower than national average at 1% with EIA estimating 4%.
U.K. Uptake Rates
For the UK, I have solar, EV/ hybrid, smartphone, internet, commute and skills. I create fuel switching in the same manner as for US, buy looking at home energy bills and looking for those households that switch from gas/coal to electric only.
Solar question is only asked in 2009, 2012, 2018, and 2021. EV is asked in 2012, 2015, 2018, and 2021. Smartphone begins in 2013. Skills starts in 2011.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
Germany Uptake Rates
For Germany I have information on solar, EV, retrofitting, smartphone, internet.
EV only exists in 2015 and 2020. (note it is full EV or biodiesel, no hybrid category) Retrofitting is asked from 2010 - 2015, and 2019 Smartphone
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'syear'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## Adding missing grouping variables: `weighted_decile`
Combined Uptake Rates
Not all technologies in each country have the same year of start and end data. I now get data as close to 2015 start and 2021 end as possible. Look at year ranges available for uptake rates for each country and technology at decile level.
## [1] "Start years used for each technology by country:"## # A tibble: 19 × 3
## country technology start_year
## <chr> <fct> <dbl>
## 1 Germany Hybrid/EV 2015
## 2 Germany Solar Panels 2015
## 3 Germany Home Renovations 2010
## 4 Germany Owns a Smartphone 2015
## 5 Germany Internet access 2015
## 6 UK Smartphone 2015
## 7 UK Solar Panels 2012
## 8 UK Internet 2015
## 9 UK Digital Skills 2015
## 10 UK Clean Heating Switch 2015
## 11 UK Electric Vehicle 2015
## 12 UK Sustainable Transport 2015
## 13 US Smartphone 2015
## 14 US Hybrid/EV 2015
## 15 US Solar Panels 2015
## 16 US Internet 2015
## 17 US Home Renovations 2015
## 18 US Digital Skills 2015
## 19 US Clean Heating Switch 2015
There are two outlier technologies for uptake rates. The first is Sustainable Transit in the UK. UK commute (sustainable transport) only shows commuting patterns for those who work, so potentially hides significant commuting preferences, particularly for those out of work or job seeking and is being compared against COVID so less people were commuting to work in 2021, no matter their method. The second is home renovations in Germany. If i change the year to later, the figure does go up, but 2010 shows a renovation boom that is lost in later years.
For fun, I’m also looking at US state variation, but this is for PhD, please ignore in meeting.
CAGR
Two point estimate is not preferable so use logistic cagr.
## [1] "Summary Statistics of CAGR by Country and Technology"## # A tibble: 19 × 7
## country technology mean_cagr median_cagr sd_cagr min_cagr max_cagr
## <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 Germany Home Renovations -0.948 -0.884 0.722 -2.06 0.0876
## 2 Germany Hybrid/EV 24.2 15.7 27.3 0.0885 69.4
## 3 Germany Internet access 4.40 4.05 2.46 1.07 8.34
## 4 Germany Owns a Smartphone 10.0 0.0375 31.6 0.0110 100
## 5 Germany Solar Panels 3.03 2.59 2.98 -2.33 7.77
## 6 UK Clean Heating Switch 0.582 0.831 0.679 -0.607 1.38
## 7 UK Digital Skills 5.98 5.52 1.99 3.42 9.85
## 8 UK Hybrid/EV 41.4 42.8 7.66 31.2 54.2
## 9 UK Internet access 2.76 1.90 2.35 0.487 7.03
## 10 UK Owns a Smartphone 6.85 5.68 3.09 3.60 12.7
## 11 UK Solar Panels 20.1 20.8 2.79 15.8 23.9
## 12 UK Sustainable Transport -14.7 -15.4 2.19 -16.7 -9.59
## 13 US Clean Heating Switch 2.65 2.55 0.672 1.43 3.71
## 14 US Digital Skills 0.933 0.293 2.71 -1.34 8.27
## 15 US Home Renovations 0.110 0.0801 0.733 -1.19 1.33
## 16 US Hybrid/EV 5.29 5.56 6.16 -2.37 16.5
## 17 US Internet access 0.957 0.516 1.22 -0.193 3.84
## 18 US Owns a Smartphone 3.40 3.50 1.28 1.45 4.86
## 19 US Solar Panels 5.53 4.57 22.4 -41.5 42.7Log based growth
Log Growth
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'country'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.## # A tibble: 19 × 6
## # Groups: country [3]
## country technology mean_growth median_growth max_growth min_growth
## <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 Germany Hybrid/EV 19.6 13.7 52.7 0.0885
## 2 Germany Owns a Smartphone 10.0 0.0374 100 0.0110
## 3 Germany Internet access 4.28 3.97 8.01 1.06
## 4 Germany Solar Panels 3.20 2.55 7.48 0.1
## 5 Germany Home Renovations 0.0914 0.1 0.1 0.0264
## 6 UK Hybrid/EV 34.5 35.6 43.3 27.1
## 7 UK Solar Panels 18.3 18.9 21.4 14.7
## 8 UK Owns a Smartphone 6.59 5.52 11.9 3.53
## 9 UK Digital Skills 5.80 5.37 9.39 3.36
## 10 UK Internet access 2.70 1.88 6.80 0.486
## 11 UK Clean Heating Switch 0.692 0.827 1.37 0.1
## 12 UK Sustainable Transport 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 13 US Solar Panels 9.01 4.46 35.5 0.1
## 14 US Hybrid/EV 5.41 5.41 15.3 0.1
## 15 US Owns a Smartphone 3.34 3.44 4.75 1.44
## 16 US Clean Heating Switch 2.61 2.51 3.64 1.42
## 17 US Digital Skills 1.19 0.293 7.95 0.0398
## 18 US Internet access 0.986 0.514 3.76 0.1
## 19 US Home Renovations 0.337 0.1 1.32 0.0309
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'country', 'technology'. You can override
## using the `.groups` argument.## # A tibble: 189 × 7
## # Groups: country, technology [19]
## country technology decile mean_growth median_growth max_growth min_growth
## <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 Germany Home Renovati… 1 0.0876 0.0876 0.0876 0.0876
## 2 Germany Home Renovati… 2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 3 Germany Home Renovati… 3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 4 Germany Home Renovati… 4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 5 Germany Home Renovati… 5 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264 0.0264
## 6 Germany Home Renovati… 6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 7 Germany Home Renovati… 7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 8 Germany Home Renovati… 8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 9 Germany Home Renovati… 9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## 10 Germany Home Renovati… 10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
## # ℹ 179 more rowsStep 2: Baseline Model
In the baseline model I assume no targeted policy to change distribution (i.e. 3% for 10th decile vs 15% for 1st in 2020 with a constant growth projection to 2050). Model aims to reach exogenously government provided diffusion target for each technology (e.g.40% for housing retrofit vs 60% for EVs). To discuss with Charlie: how does government goal fit in with distribution ? for now, I dont have government level, though do have in earlier version, (see edits v1). I just made it 100 in the first level and didn’t adopt for government target, just let the logistic growth rn to 2050.
## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.
## [1] "Progress toward government targets:"## # A tibble: 7 × 6
## technology target mean_current mean_2030 mean_2050 gap_to_target
## <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 Clean Heating Switch 69 44.5 50.4 59.8 9.24
## 2 Digital Skills 90 51.7 58.6 64.0 26.0
## 3 Home Renovations 45 55.2 42.4 42.7 2.29
## 4 Hybrid/EV 60 2.87 28.6 36.8 23.2
## 5 Internet 100 80.5 81.5 83.5 16.5
## 6 Smartphone 100 91.4 92.5 94.5 5.47
## 7 Solar Panels 45 0.429 16.2 25.0 20.0
## Summary of CAGRs by technology and country:## # A tibble: 19 × 7
## technology country min_cagr mean_cagr max_cagr min_start max_start
## <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 Clean Heating Switch UK 0.1 0.692 1.37 13.8 23.4
## 2 Clean Heating Switch US 1.42 2.61 3.64 22.8 43.7
## 3 Digital Skills UK 3.36 5.80 9.39 26.4 68.5
## 4 Digital Skills US 0.0398 1.19 7.95 19.3 83.5
## 5 Home Renovations Germany 0.0264 0.0914 0.1 34.9 47.3
## 6 Home Renovations US 0.0309 0.337 1.32 27.6 82.6
## 7 Hybrid/EV Germany 0.0885 19.6 52.7 0.0855 0.338
## 8 Hybrid/EV UK 27.1 34.5 43.3 0.0414 0.531
## 9 Hybrid/EV US 0.1 5.41 15.3 0.446 2.53
## 10 Internet access Germany 1.06 4.28 8.01 41.0 89.0
## 11 Internet access UK 0.486 2.70 6.80 36.1 93.9
## 12 Internet access US 0.1 0.986 3.76 38.5 97.9
## 13 Owns a Smartphone Germany 0.0110 10.0 100 97.7 100
## 14 Owns a Smartphone UK 3.53 6.59 11.9 27.3 71.7
## 15 Owns a Smartphone US 1.44 3.34 4.75 59.8 90.5
## 16 Solar Panels Germany 0.1 3.20 7.48 0.828 3.52
## 17 Solar Panels UK 14.7 18.3 21.4 0.454 0.830
## 18 Solar Panels US 0.1 9.01 35.5 0.144 0.449
## 19 Sustainable Transport UK 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.19 14.1##
## Processing US - Owns a Smartphone
## CAGR range for Owns a Smartphone in US: 1.44% to 4.75%
## Original CAGR: 4.75%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.75%
## Start value: 79.50%
## Original CAGR: 4.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.28%
## Start value: 83.02%
## Original CAGR: 4.59%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.59%
## Start value: 87.41%
## Original CAGR: 4.75%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.75%
## Start value: 92.09%
## Original CAGR: 3.61%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.61%
## Start value: 92.08%
## Original CAGR: 3.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.28%
## Start value: 93.26%
## Original CAGR: 2.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.49%
## Start value: 94.43%
## Original CAGR: 2.08%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.08%
## Start value: 95.60%
## Original CAGR: 2.13%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.13%
## Start value: 97.65%
## Original CAGR: 1.44%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.44%
## Start value: 98.68%
##
## Processing US - Hybrid/EV
## CAGR range for Hybrid/EV in US: 0.10% to 15.26%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.61%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.76%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.61%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.76%
## Original CAGR: 15.26%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.05%
## Original CAGR: 9.50%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.08%
## Original CAGR: 5.98%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.52%
## Original CAGR: 9.02%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.67%
## Original CAGR: 9.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.57%
## Original CAGR: 4.84%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.84%
## Start value: 4.11%
##
## Processing US - Solar Panels
## CAGR range for Solar Panels in US: 0.10% to 35.53%
## Original CAGR: 0.45%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.45%
## Start value: 0.45%
## Original CAGR: 6.72%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.30%
## No valid data for Solar Panels Decile 3
## Original CAGR: 0.29%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.29%
## Start value: 0.29%
## Original CAGR: 35.53%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.60%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.15%
## Original CAGR: 4.46%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.46%
## Start value: 0.44%
## Original CAGR: 19.57%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.74%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.30%
## Original CAGR: 13.88%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.60%
##
## Processing US - Internet access
## CAGR range for Internet access in US: 0.10% to 3.76%
## Original CAGR: 3.76%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.76%
## Start value: 56.08%
## Original CAGR: 1.55%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.55%
## Start value: 60.61%
## Original CAGR: 1.90%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.90%
## Start value: 73.06%
## Original CAGR: 1.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.01%
## Start value: 77.89%
## Original CAGR: 0.19%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.19%
## Start value: 79.47%
## Original CAGR: 0.59%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.59%
## Start value: 86.22%
## Original CAGR: 0.22%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.22%
## Start value: 89.74%
## Original CAGR: 0.44%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.44%
## Start value: 90.62%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 95.31%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 96.04%
##
## Processing US - Home Renovations
## CAGR range for Home Renovations in US: 0.03% to 1.32%
## Original CAGR: 1.07%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.07%
## Start value: 30.75%
## Original CAGR: 0.39%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.39%
## Start value: 35.58%
## Original CAGR: 1.32%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.32%
## Start value: 43.63%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 43.05%
## Original CAGR: 0.07%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.07%
## Start value: 53.96%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 58.36%
## Original CAGR: 0.11%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.11%
## Start value: 63.78%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 64.66%
## Original CAGR: 0.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.09%
## Start value: 75.51%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 82.84%
##
## Processing US - Digital Skills
## CAGR range for Digital Skills in US: 0.04% to 7.95%
## Original CAGR: 7.95%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 31.04%
## Original CAGR: 0.75%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.75%
## Start value: 32.94%
## Original CAGR: 1.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.49%
## Start value: 41.14%
## Original CAGR: 0.37%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.37%
## Start value: 46.12%
## Original CAGR: 0.04%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.04%
## Start value: 47.36%
## Original CAGR: 0.22%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.22%
## Start value: 52.20%
## Original CAGR: 0.79%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.79%
## Start value: 58.21%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 59.24%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 69.94%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 79.03%
##
## Processing US - Clean Heating Switch
## CAGR range for Clean Heating Switch in US: 1.42% to 3.64%
## Original CAGR: 2.56%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.56%
## Start value: 56.44%
## Original CAGR: 2.23%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.23%
## Start value: 52.15%
## Original CAGR: 3.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.01%
## Start value: 52.36%
## Original CAGR: 3.56%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.56%
## Start value: 52.87%
## Original CAGR: 1.42%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.42%
## Start value: 43.47%
## Original CAGR: 2.38%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.38%
## Start value: 42.79%
## Original CAGR: 3.64%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.64%
## Start value: 42.92%
## Original CAGR: 2.52%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.52%
## Start value: 37.46%
## Original CAGR: 2.31%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.31%
## Start value: 35.07%
## Original CAGR: 2.51%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.51%
## Start value: 29.32%
##
## Processing UK - Hybrid/EV
## CAGR range for Hybrid/EV in UK: 27.13% to 43.31%
## Original CAGR: 43.31%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.38%
## Original CAGR: 36.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.06%
## Original CAGR: 27.13%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.46%
## Original CAGR: 36.88%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.24%
## Original CAGR: 34.60%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.73%
## Original CAGR: 28.12%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.61%
## Original CAGR: 39.88%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.33%
## Original CAGR: 36.33%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.33%
## Original CAGR: 35.23%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.94%
## Original CAGR: 27.24%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 6.16%
##
## Processing UK - Solar Panels
## CAGR range for Solar Panels in UK: 14.70% to 21.43%
## Original CAGR: 16.30%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.71%
## Original CAGR: 14.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.26%
## Original CAGR: 15.41%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.62%
## Original CAGR: 16.71%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.56%
## Original CAGR: 18.50%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.51%
## Original CAGR: 21.43%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.95%
## Original CAGR: 19.71%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.49%
## Original CAGR: 20.54%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 6.04%
## Original CAGR: 19.34%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 6.45%
## Original CAGR: 20.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 9.24%
##
## Processing UK - Owns a Smartphone
## CAGR range for Owns a Smartphone in UK: 3.53% to 11.94%
## Original CAGR: 11.94%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 71.07%
## Original CAGR: 10.79%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 73.65%
## Original CAGR: 7.81%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 74.21%
## Original CAGR: 7.32%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 81.63%
## Original CAGR: 5.99%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 82.09%
## Original CAGR: 4.45%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.45%
## Start value: 84.25%
## Original CAGR: 5.05%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 89.63%
## Original CAGR: 4.55%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.55%
## Start value: 92.59%
## Original CAGR: 4.46%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.46%
## Start value: 93.38%
## Original CAGR: 3.53%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.53%
## Start value: 95.10%
##
## Processing UK - Internet access
## CAGR range for Internet access in UK: 0.49% to 6.80%
## Original CAGR: 6.80%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 81.52%
## Original CAGR: 6.02%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 86.30%
## Original CAGR: 4.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.03%
## Start value: 88.24%
## Original CAGR: 3.19%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.19%
## Start value: 94.55%
## Original CAGR: 2.23%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.23%
## Start value: 95.42%
## Original CAGR: 1.54%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.54%
## Start value: 96.21%
## Original CAGR: 1.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.15%
## Start value: 98.66%
## Original CAGR: 0.97%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.97%
## Start value: 99.26%
## Original CAGR: 0.56%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.56%
## Start value: 99.14%
## Original CAGR: 0.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.49%
## Start value: 99.56%
##
## Processing UK - Digital Skills
## CAGR range for Digital Skills in UK: 3.36% to 9.39%
## Original CAGR: 9.39%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 55.92%
## Original CAGR: 7.98%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 58.26%
## Original CAGR: 6.97%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 64.48%
## Original CAGR: 6.12%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 69.89%
## Original CAGR: 5.63%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 75.59%
## Original CAGR: 5.11%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 79.18%
## Original CAGR: 4.71%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.71%
## Start value: 83.11%
## Original CAGR: 4.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.70%
## Start value: 87.15%
## Original CAGR: 3.98%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.98%
## Start value: 88.81%
## Original CAGR: 3.36%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.36%
## Start value: 89.63%
##
## Processing UK - Sustainable Transport
## CAGR range for Sustainable Transport in UK: 0.10% to 0.10%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.95%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.57%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.14%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.34%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.03%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.18%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.34%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.71%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 2.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.82%
##
## Processing UK - Clean Heating Switch
## CAGR range for Clean Heating Switch in UK: 0.10% to 1.37%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 22.88%
## Original CAGR: 0.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.70%
## Start value: 21.70%
## Original CAGR: 0.95%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.95%
## Start value: 19.79%
## Original CAGR: 1.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.03%
## Start value: 19.12%
## Original CAGR: 1.37%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.37%
## Start value: 18.32%
## Original CAGR: 1.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.15%
## Start value: 17.19%
## Original CAGR: 1.14%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.14%
## Start value: 17.13%
## Original CAGR: 0.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.28%
## Start value: 14.42%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 13.76%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 13.92%
##
## Processing Germany - Hybrid/EV
## CAGR range for Hybrid/EV in Germany: 0.09% to 52.68%
## Original CAGR: 0.27%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.27%
## Start value: 0.27%
## Original CAGR: 0.34%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.34%
## Start value: 0.34%
## Original CAGR: 0.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.09%
## Start value: 0.09%
## Original CAGR: 0.17%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.17%
## Start value: 0.17%
## Original CAGR: 0.17%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.17%
## Start value: 0.17%
## Original CAGR: 27.08%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.44%
## Original CAGR: 31.24%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.46%
## Original CAGR: 45.21%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.94%
## Original CAGR: 52.68%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.19%
## Original CAGR: 38.48%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.32%
##
## Processing Germany - Solar Panels
## CAGR range for Solar Panels in Germany: 0.10% to 7.48%
## Original CAGR: 2.63%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.63%
## Start value: 1.11%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.35%
## Original CAGR: 1.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.28%
## Start value: 2.10%
## Original CAGR: 7.48%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.10%
## Original CAGR: 1.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.49%
## Start value: 2.23%
## Original CAGR: 2.48%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.48%
## Start value: 2.77%
## Original CAGR: 2.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.70%
## Start value: 3.15%
## Original CAGR: 1.87%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.87%
## Start value: 3.74%
## Original CAGR: 5.00%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.48%
## Original CAGR: 6.95%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 7.55%
##
## Processing Germany - Home Renovations
## CAGR range for Home Renovations in Germany: 0.03% to 0.10%
## Original CAGR: 0.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.09%
## Start value: 45.28%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 40.59%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 38.39%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 37.66%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 38.83%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 36.28%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 38.40%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 39.60%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 33.78%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 28.95%
##
## Processing Germany - Owns a Smartphone
## CAGR range for Owns a Smartphone in Germany: 0.01% to 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.21%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.21%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.02%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.02%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.05%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.05%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.06%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.06%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.01%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.04%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.04%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 100.00%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.01%
## Start value: 100.00%
##
## Processing Germany - Internet access
## CAGR range for Internet access in Germany: 1.06% to 8.01%
## Original CAGR: 8.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 98.96%
## Original CAGR: 7.35%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 6.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 4.91%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.91%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 4.53%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.53%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 3.41%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.41%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 3.20%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.20%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 2.44%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.44%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 1.72%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.72%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 1.06%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.06%
## Start value: 100.00%
Step 3: 2050 Diffusion Impacts
Step 3 Estimate how distributional impacts of technology uptake affect final energy costs for household across time. Use survey data to estimate how final energy costs increase/decrease with different technologies including in a household (holding all other variables constant) in 2020. Then, hold energy prices static (very large assumption) to see how technology diffusion affects final energy costs for residential sector at decile level in 2050.
I first get the average amount spent on energy, then roughly estimate how much is on gas vs electric, then get historical prices and convert amount spent to gas and eelctric to consumption. This is easier for some data (ex. US ) than others
take a simple model to turn the technology into electricity
##
## Summary for US:
## elec_price gas_price
## Min. : 9.45 Min. :3.430
## 1st Qu.:11.52 1st Qu.:3.598
## Median :12.32 Median :3.750
## Mean :12.15 Mean :4.009
## 3rd Qu.:12.88 3rd Qu.:4.380
## Max. :14.77 Max. :5.450
## Data source: EIA Average Retail Prices
##
## Summary for DEU:
## elec_price gas_price
## Min. :22.50 Min. :2.050
## 1st Qu.:30.68 1st Qu.:3.070
## Median :33.60 Median :3.070
## Mean :32.81 Mean :2.994
## 3rd Qu.:35.62 3rd Qu.:3.070
## Max. :38.60 Max. :3.410
## Data source: [Add German source]
##
## Summary for UK:
## elec_price gas_price
## Min. :15.65 Min. :0.4500
## 1st Qu.:22.54 1st Qu.:0.4725
## Median :23.70 Median :0.5300
## Mean :25.40 Mean :0.5439
## 3rd Qu.:26.86 3rd Qu.:0.5975
## Max. :40.01 Max. :0.7600
## Data source: [Add UK source]
Now that we have average historical costs, I can convert the amount spent to consumption at decile level.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.## [1] "DEXUSEU"## [1] "DEXUSUK"
### Technology model for electricity
## technology kwh_per_year
## 1 Owns a Smartphone 30
## 2 Hybrid/EV 2000
## 3 Solar Panels -3000
## 4 Internet access 180
## 5 Home Renovations -500
## 6 Digital Skills 250
## 7 Clean Heating Switch 3500
## 8 Sustainable Transport -200## Adding missing grouping variables: `year`## Processing country: US
## Processing technology: Owns a Smartphone
## Processing technology: Hybrid/EV
## Processing technology: Solar Panels
## Processing technology: Internet access
## Processing technology: Home Renovations
## Processing technology: Digital Skills
## Processing technology: Clean Heating Switch
## Processing country: UK
## Processing technology: Hybrid/EV
## Processing technology: Solar Panels
## Processing technology: Owns a Smartphone
## Processing technology: Internet access
## Processing technology: Digital Skills
## Processing technology: Sustainable Transport
## Processing technology: Clean Heating Switch
## Processing country: Germany
## Processing technology: Hybrid/EV
## Processing technology: Solar Panels
## Processing technology: Home Renovations
## Processing technology: Owns a Smartphone
## Processing technology: Internet access
## Final number of rows: 5725Visualize the additional demand from technologies with our demand increase projections.
#Step 4: Adoption S-curve impacts
I now have estimates of how much these additional technologies would cost each decile to 2050. Now it is time to run a better forecast model that assumes earlier or later adoption trends of technologies. I want to look at how earlier or later adoption affects.
## [1] "Checking starting values:"## # A tibble: 189 × 5
## # Groups: technology, decile, country [189]
## technology decile end_value country end_year
## <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <chr> <dbl>
## 1 Clean Heating Switch 1 22.9 UK 2021
## 2 Clean Heating Switch 2 21.7 UK 2021
## 3 Clean Heating Switch 3 19.8 UK 2021
## 4 Clean Heating Switch 4 19.1 UK 2021
## 5 Clean Heating Switch 5 18.3 UK 2021
## 6 Clean Heating Switch 6 17.2 UK 2021
## 7 Clean Heating Switch 7 17.1 UK 2021
## 8 Clean Heating Switch 8 14.4 UK 2021
## 9 Clean Heating Switch 9 13.8 UK 2021
## 10 Clean Heating Switch 10 13.9 UK 2021
## # ℹ 179 more rows
## technology kwh_per_year
## 1 Owns a Smartphone 30
## 2 Hybrid/EV 2000
## 3 Solar Panels -3000
## 4 Internet access 180
## 5 Home Renovations -500
## 6 Digital Skills 250
## 7 Clean Heating Switch 3500
## 8 Sustainable Transport -200
Questions for Charlie: do we want to add technology specific s-curves ? Right now they are general. technology specific would look more like this:
