This is the data behind the EDITS work. It follows four steps. For Step 1 I look at uptake rates between 2010 and 2021 in three countries: US, UK and Germany. For the US, I use the PSID which tracks households between 2011- 2021 on a biannual basis. For Germany, I use SOEP which tracks households between 2010- 2021 on an annual basis, and for the UK I use Understanding Society which tracks households between 2010 - 2021 on an annual basis. All data was downloaded in September 2024 and cleaning files are on github.

8 technologies selected are :Internet Access, own a smartphone, Home has Solar, Home switched from Gas/Coal/Wood to electric (fuel switching), Home renovation/ retrofitting, EV/ Hybrid car, Commuting habit (walking, biking), digital skills/ capabilities (daily use of internet).

Note: Significant limitations on technologies surveyed. With better data, I could also do this for smart-meters, air conditioners, etc.

Step 1: Uptake Rates

This provides a snapshot for current uptake across the households assessing heterogeneity across income level.

U.S. Uptake Rates

For the US, I have information for solar ownership, EV/ hybrid ownership, smartphone ownership, internet access, and commute habit. I create an additional variable on fuel switching by looking at heating method and seeing where moved from wood, oil, gas, coal to electric heating. I also create a variable for retrofitting based on home renovations and skills based on survey responses where RP responds they use the internet daily.

Note: Smartphone ownership and digital skills questions were only added to the survey in 2015.

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## Warning: Removed 40 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Warning: Removed 40 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Removed 40 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

Clean heating is interesting in that high income households had less electric only and marginally increased over 2011 - 2021 time period, though they still did increase within decile 9 and 10. Solar panel infiltration is lower than national average at 1% with EIA estimating 4%.

U.K. Uptake Rates

For the UK, I have solar, EV/ hybrid, smartphone, internet, commute and skills. I create fuel switching in the same manner as for US, buy looking at home energy bills and looking for those households that switch from gas/coal to electric only.

Solar question is only asked in 2009, 2012, 2018, and 2021. EV is asked in 2012, 2015, 2018, and 2021. Smartphone begins in 2013. Skills starts in 2011.

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

## Warning: Removed 20 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).

Germany Uptake Rates

For Germany I have information on solar, EV, retrofitting, smartphone, internet.

EV only exists in 2015 and 2020. (note it is full EV or biodiesel, no hybrid category) Retrofitting is asked from 2010 - 2015, and 2019 Smartphone

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'syear'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## Adding missing grouping variables: `weighted_decile`

Combined Uptake Rates

Not all technologies in each country have the same year of start and end data. I now get data as close to 2015 start and 2021 end as possible. Look at year ranges available for uptake rates for each country and technology at decile level.

## [1] "Start years used for each technology by country:"
## # A tibble: 19 × 3
##    country technology            start_year
##    <chr>   <fct>                      <dbl>
##  1 Germany Hybrid/EV                   2015
##  2 Germany Solar Panels                2015
##  3 Germany Home Renovations            2010
##  4 Germany Owns a Smartphone           2015
##  5 Germany Internet access             2015
##  6 UK      Smartphone                  2015
##  7 UK      Solar Panels                2012
##  8 UK      Internet                    2015
##  9 UK      Digital Skills              2015
## 10 UK      Clean Heating Switch        2015
## 11 UK      Electric Vehicle            2015
## 12 UK      Sustainable Transport       2015
## 13 US      Smartphone                  2015
## 14 US      Hybrid/EV                   2015
## 15 US      Solar Panels                2015
## 16 US      Internet                    2015
## 17 US      Home Renovations            2015
## 18 US      Digital Skills              2015
## 19 US      Clean Heating Switch        2015

There are two outlier technologies for uptake rates. The first is Sustainable Transit in the UK. UK commute (sustainable transport) only shows commuting patterns for those who work, so potentially hides significant commuting preferences, particularly for those out of work or job seeking and is being compared against COVID so less people were commuting to work in 2021, no matter their method. The second is home renovations in Germany. If i change the year to later, the figure does go up, but 2010 shows a renovation boom that is lost in later years.

For fun, I’m also looking at US state variation, but this is for PhD, please ignore in meeting.

CAGR

Two point estimate is not preferable so use logistic cagr.

## [1] "Summary Statistics of CAGR by Country and Technology"
## # A tibble: 19 × 7
##    country technology            mean_cagr median_cagr sd_cagr min_cagr max_cagr
##    <chr>   <chr>                     <dbl>       <dbl>   <dbl>    <dbl>    <dbl>
##  1 Germany Home Renovations         -0.948     -0.884    0.722  -2.06     0.0876
##  2 Germany Hybrid/EV                24.2       15.7     27.3     0.0885  69.4   
##  3 Germany Internet access           4.40       4.05     2.46    1.07     8.34  
##  4 Germany Owns a Smartphone        10.0        0.0375  31.6     0.0110 100     
##  5 Germany Solar Panels              3.03       2.59     2.98   -2.33     7.77  
##  6 UK      Clean Heating Switch      0.582      0.831    0.679  -0.607    1.38  
##  7 UK      Digital Skills            5.98       5.52     1.99    3.42     9.85  
##  8 UK      Hybrid/EV                41.4       42.8      7.66   31.2     54.2   
##  9 UK      Internet access           2.76       1.90     2.35    0.487    7.03  
## 10 UK      Owns a Smartphone         6.85       5.68     3.09    3.60    12.7   
## 11 UK      Solar Panels             20.1       20.8      2.79   15.8     23.9   
## 12 UK      Sustainable Transport   -14.7      -15.4      2.19  -16.7     -9.59  
## 13 US      Clean Heating Switch      2.65       2.55     0.672   1.43     3.71  
## 14 US      Digital Skills            0.933      0.293    2.71   -1.34     8.27  
## 15 US      Home Renovations          0.110      0.0801   0.733  -1.19     1.33  
## 16 US      Hybrid/EV                 5.29       5.56     6.16   -2.37    16.5   
## 17 US      Internet access           0.957      0.516    1.22   -0.193    3.84  
## 18 US      Owns a Smartphone         3.40       3.50     1.28    1.45     4.86  
## 19 US      Solar Panels              5.53       4.57    22.4   -41.5     42.7

Log based growth

Log Growth

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'country'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## # A tibble: 19 × 6
## # Groups:   country [3]
##    country technology            mean_growth median_growth max_growth min_growth
##    <chr>   <chr>                       <dbl>         <dbl>      <dbl>      <dbl>
##  1 Germany Hybrid/EV                 19.6          13.7         52.7      0.0885
##  2 Germany Owns a Smartphone         10.0           0.0374     100        0.0110
##  3 Germany Internet access            4.28          3.97         8.01     1.06  
##  4 Germany Solar Panels               3.20          2.55         7.48     0.1   
##  5 Germany Home Renovations           0.0914        0.1          0.1      0.0264
##  6 UK      Hybrid/EV                 34.5          35.6         43.3     27.1   
##  7 UK      Solar Panels              18.3          18.9         21.4     14.7   
##  8 UK      Owns a Smartphone          6.59          5.52        11.9      3.53  
##  9 UK      Digital Skills             5.80          5.37         9.39     3.36  
## 10 UK      Internet access            2.70          1.88         6.80     0.486 
## 11 UK      Clean Heating Switch       0.692         0.827        1.37     0.1   
## 12 UK      Sustainable Transport      0.1           0.1          0.1      0.1   
## 13 US      Solar Panels               9.01          4.46        35.5      0.1   
## 14 US      Hybrid/EV                  5.41          5.41        15.3      0.1   
## 15 US      Owns a Smartphone          3.34          3.44         4.75     1.44  
## 16 US      Clean Heating Switch       2.61          2.51         3.64     1.42  
## 17 US      Digital Skills             1.19          0.293        7.95     0.0398
## 18 US      Internet access            0.986         0.514        3.76     0.1   
## 19 US      Home Renovations           0.337         0.1          1.32     0.0309

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'country', 'technology'. You can override
## using the `.groups` argument.
## # A tibble: 189 × 7
## # Groups:   country, technology [19]
##    country technology     decile mean_growth median_growth max_growth min_growth
##    <chr>   <chr>           <dbl>       <dbl>         <dbl>      <dbl>      <dbl>
##  1 Germany Home Renovati…      1      0.0876        0.0876     0.0876     0.0876
##  2 Germany Home Renovati…      2      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
##  3 Germany Home Renovati…      3      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
##  4 Germany Home Renovati…      4      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
##  5 Germany Home Renovati…      5      0.0264        0.0264     0.0264     0.0264
##  6 Germany Home Renovati…      6      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
##  7 Germany Home Renovati…      7      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
##  8 Germany Home Renovati…      8      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
##  9 Germany Home Renovati…      9      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
## 10 Germany Home Renovati…     10      0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1   
## # ℹ 179 more rows

Step 2: Baseline Model

In the baseline model I assume no targeted policy to change distribution (i.e. 3% for 10th decile vs 15% for 1st in 2020 with a constant growth projection to 2050). Model aims to reach exogenously government provided diffusion target for each technology (e.g.40% for housing retrofit vs 60% for EVs). To discuss with Charlie: how does government goal fit in with distribution ? for now, I dont have government level, though do have in earlier version, (see edits v1). I just made it 100 in the first level and didn’t adopt for government target, just let the logistic growth rn to 2050.

## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

## [1] "Progress toward government targets:"
## # A tibble: 7 × 6
##   technology           target mean_current mean_2030 mean_2050 gap_to_target
##   <chr>                 <dbl>        <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>         <dbl>
## 1 Clean Heating Switch     69       44.5        50.4      59.8          9.24
## 2 Digital Skills           90       51.7        58.6      64.0         26.0 
## 3 Home Renovations         45       55.2        42.4      42.7          2.29
## 4 Hybrid/EV                60        2.87       28.6      36.8         23.2 
## 5 Internet                100       80.5        81.5      83.5         16.5 
## 6 Smartphone              100       91.4        92.5      94.5          5.47
## 7 Solar Panels             45        0.429      16.2      25.0         20.0

## Summary of CAGRs by technology and country:
## # A tibble: 19 × 7
##    technology            country min_cagr mean_cagr max_cagr min_start max_start
##    <chr>                 <chr>      <dbl>     <dbl>    <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>
##  1 Clean Heating Switch  UK        0.1       0.692      1.37   13.8       23.4  
##  2 Clean Heating Switch  US        1.42      2.61       3.64   22.8       43.7  
##  3 Digital Skills        UK        3.36      5.80       9.39   26.4       68.5  
##  4 Digital Skills        US        0.0398    1.19       7.95   19.3       83.5  
##  5 Home Renovations      Germany   0.0264    0.0914     0.1    34.9       47.3  
##  6 Home Renovations      US        0.0309    0.337      1.32   27.6       82.6  
##  7 Hybrid/EV             Germany   0.0885   19.6       52.7     0.0855     0.338
##  8 Hybrid/EV             UK       27.1      34.5       43.3     0.0414     0.531
##  9 Hybrid/EV             US        0.1       5.41      15.3     0.446      2.53 
## 10 Internet access       Germany   1.06      4.28       8.01   41.0       89.0  
## 11 Internet access       UK        0.486     2.70       6.80   36.1       93.9  
## 12 Internet access       US        0.1       0.986      3.76   38.5       97.9  
## 13 Owns a Smartphone     Germany   0.0110   10.0      100      97.7      100    
## 14 Owns a Smartphone     UK        3.53      6.59      11.9    27.3       71.7  
## 15 Owns a Smartphone     US        1.44      3.34       4.75   59.8       90.5  
## 16 Solar Panels          Germany   0.1       3.20       7.48    0.828      3.52 
## 17 Solar Panels          UK       14.7      18.3       21.4     0.454      0.830
## 18 Solar Panels          US        0.1       9.01      35.5     0.144      0.449
## 19 Sustainable Transport UK        0.1       0.1        0.1     3.19      14.1
## 
## Processing US - Owns a Smartphone 
## CAGR range for Owns a Smartphone in US: 1.44% to 4.75%
## Original CAGR: 4.75%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.75%
## Start value: 79.50%
## Original CAGR: 4.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.28%
## Start value: 83.02%
## Original CAGR: 4.59%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.59%
## Start value: 87.41%
## Original CAGR: 4.75%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.75%
## Start value: 92.09%
## Original CAGR: 3.61%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.61%
## Start value: 92.08%
## Original CAGR: 3.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.28%
## Start value: 93.26%
## Original CAGR: 2.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.49%
## Start value: 94.43%
## Original CAGR: 2.08%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.08%
## Start value: 95.60%
## Original CAGR: 2.13%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.13%
## Start value: 97.65%
## Original CAGR: 1.44%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.44%
## Start value: 98.68%

## 
## Processing US - Hybrid/EV 
## CAGR range for Hybrid/EV in US: 0.10% to 15.26%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.61%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.76%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.61%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.76%
## Original CAGR: 15.26%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.05%
## Original CAGR: 9.50%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.08%
## Original CAGR: 5.98%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.52%
## Original CAGR: 9.02%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.67%
## Original CAGR: 9.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.57%
## Original CAGR: 4.84%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.84%
## Start value: 4.11%

## 
## Processing US - Solar Panels 
## CAGR range for Solar Panels in US: 0.10% to 35.53%
## Original CAGR: 0.45%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.45%
## Start value: 0.45%
## Original CAGR: 6.72%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.30%
## No valid data for Solar Panels Decile 3 
## Original CAGR: 0.29%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.29%
## Start value: 0.29%
## Original CAGR: 35.53%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.60%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.15%
## Original CAGR: 4.46%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.46%
## Start value: 0.44%
## Original CAGR: 19.57%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.74%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.30%
## Original CAGR: 13.88%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.60%

## 
## Processing US - Internet access 
## CAGR range for Internet access in US: 0.10% to 3.76%
## Original CAGR: 3.76%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.76%
## Start value: 56.08%
## Original CAGR: 1.55%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.55%
## Start value: 60.61%
## Original CAGR: 1.90%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.90%
## Start value: 73.06%
## Original CAGR: 1.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.01%
## Start value: 77.89%
## Original CAGR: 0.19%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.19%
## Start value: 79.47%
## Original CAGR: 0.59%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.59%
## Start value: 86.22%
## Original CAGR: 0.22%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.22%
## Start value: 89.74%
## Original CAGR: 0.44%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.44%
## Start value: 90.62%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 95.31%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 96.04%

## 
## Processing US - Home Renovations 
## CAGR range for Home Renovations in US: 0.03% to 1.32%
## Original CAGR: 1.07%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.07%
## Start value: 30.75%
## Original CAGR: 0.39%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.39%
## Start value: 35.58%
## Original CAGR: 1.32%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.32%
## Start value: 43.63%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 43.05%
## Original CAGR: 0.07%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.07%
## Start value: 53.96%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 58.36%
## Original CAGR: 0.11%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.11%
## Start value: 63.78%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 64.66%
## Original CAGR: 0.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.09%
## Start value: 75.51%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 82.84%

## 
## Processing US - Digital Skills 
## CAGR range for Digital Skills in US: 0.04% to 7.95%
## Original CAGR: 7.95%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 31.04%
## Original CAGR: 0.75%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.75%
## Start value: 32.94%
## Original CAGR: 1.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.49%
## Start value: 41.14%
## Original CAGR: 0.37%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.37%
## Start value: 46.12%
## Original CAGR: 0.04%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.04%
## Start value: 47.36%
## Original CAGR: 0.22%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.22%
## Start value: 52.20%
## Original CAGR: 0.79%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.79%
## Start value: 58.21%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 59.24%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 69.94%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 79.03%

## 
## Processing US - Clean Heating Switch 
## CAGR range for Clean Heating Switch in US: 1.42% to 3.64%
## Original CAGR: 2.56%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.56%
## Start value: 56.44%
## Original CAGR: 2.23%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.23%
## Start value: 52.15%
## Original CAGR: 3.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.01%
## Start value: 52.36%
## Original CAGR: 3.56%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.56%
## Start value: 52.87%
## Original CAGR: 1.42%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.42%
## Start value: 43.47%
## Original CAGR: 2.38%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.38%
## Start value: 42.79%
## Original CAGR: 3.64%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.64%
## Start value: 42.92%
## Original CAGR: 2.52%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.52%
## Start value: 37.46%
## Original CAGR: 2.31%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.31%
## Start value: 35.07%
## Original CAGR: 2.51%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.51%
## Start value: 29.32%

## 
## Processing UK - Hybrid/EV 
## CAGR range for Hybrid/EV in UK: 27.13% to 43.31%
## Original CAGR: 43.31%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.38%
## Original CAGR: 36.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.06%
## Original CAGR: 27.13%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.46%
## Original CAGR: 36.88%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.24%
## Original CAGR: 34.60%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.73%
## Original CAGR: 28.12%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.61%
## Original CAGR: 39.88%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.33%
## Original CAGR: 36.33%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.33%
## Original CAGR: 35.23%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.94%
## Original CAGR: 27.24%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 6.16%

## 
## Processing UK - Solar Panels 
## CAGR range for Solar Panels in UK: 14.70% to 21.43%
## Original CAGR: 16.30%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.71%
## Original CAGR: 14.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.26%
## Original CAGR: 15.41%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.62%
## Original CAGR: 16.71%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.56%
## Original CAGR: 18.50%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 4.51%
## Original CAGR: 21.43%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.95%
## Original CAGR: 19.71%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 5.49%
## Original CAGR: 20.54%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 6.04%
## Original CAGR: 19.34%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 6.45%
## Original CAGR: 20.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 9.24%

## 
## Processing UK - Owns a Smartphone 
## CAGR range for Owns a Smartphone in UK: 3.53% to 11.94%
## Original CAGR: 11.94%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 71.07%
## Original CAGR: 10.79%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 73.65%
## Original CAGR: 7.81%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 74.21%
## Original CAGR: 7.32%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 81.63%
## Original CAGR: 5.99%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 82.09%
## Original CAGR: 4.45%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.45%
## Start value: 84.25%
## Original CAGR: 5.05%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 89.63%
## Original CAGR: 4.55%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.55%
## Start value: 92.59%
## Original CAGR: 4.46%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.46%
## Start value: 93.38%
## Original CAGR: 3.53%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.53%
## Start value: 95.10%

## 
## Processing UK - Internet access 
## CAGR range for Internet access in UK: 0.49% to 6.80%
## Original CAGR: 6.80%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 81.52%
## Original CAGR: 6.02%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 86.30%
## Original CAGR: 4.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.03%
## Start value: 88.24%
## Original CAGR: 3.19%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.19%
## Start value: 94.55%
## Original CAGR: 2.23%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.23%
## Start value: 95.42%
## Original CAGR: 1.54%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.54%
## Start value: 96.21%
## Original CAGR: 1.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.15%
## Start value: 98.66%
## Original CAGR: 0.97%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.97%
## Start value: 99.26%
## Original CAGR: 0.56%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.56%
## Start value: 99.14%
## Original CAGR: 0.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.49%
## Start value: 99.56%

## 
## Processing UK - Digital Skills 
## CAGR range for Digital Skills in UK: 3.36% to 9.39%
## Original CAGR: 9.39%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 55.92%
## Original CAGR: 7.98%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 58.26%
## Original CAGR: 6.97%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 64.48%
## Original CAGR: 6.12%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 69.89%
## Original CAGR: 5.63%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 75.59%
## Original CAGR: 5.11%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 79.18%
## Original CAGR: 4.71%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.71%
## Start value: 83.11%
## Original CAGR: 4.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.70%
## Start value: 87.15%
## Original CAGR: 3.98%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.98%
## Start value: 88.81%
## Original CAGR: 3.36%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.36%
## Start value: 89.63%

## 
## Processing UK - Sustainable Transport 
## CAGR range for Sustainable Transport in UK: 0.10% to 0.10%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.95%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 0.57%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.14%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.34%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.03%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.18%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.34%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.71%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 2.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.82%

## 
## Processing UK - Clean Heating Switch 
## CAGR range for Clean Heating Switch in UK: 0.10% to 1.37%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 22.88%
## Original CAGR: 0.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.70%
## Start value: 21.70%
## Original CAGR: 0.95%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.95%
## Start value: 19.79%
## Original CAGR: 1.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.03%
## Start value: 19.12%
## Original CAGR: 1.37%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.37%
## Start value: 18.32%
## Original CAGR: 1.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.15%
## Start value: 17.19%
## Original CAGR: 1.14%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.14%
## Start value: 17.13%
## Original CAGR: 0.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.28%
## Start value: 14.42%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 13.76%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 13.92%

## 
## Processing Germany - Hybrid/EV 
## CAGR range for Hybrid/EV in Germany: 0.09% to 52.68%
## Original CAGR: 0.27%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.27%
## Start value: 0.27%
## Original CAGR: 0.34%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.34%
## Start value: 0.34%
## Original CAGR: 0.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.09%
## Start value: 0.09%
## Original CAGR: 0.17%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.17%
## Start value: 0.17%
## Original CAGR: 0.17%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.17%
## Start value: 0.17%
## Original CAGR: 27.08%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.44%
## Original CAGR: 31.24%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.46%
## Original CAGR: 45.21%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 0.94%
## Original CAGR: 52.68%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 1.19%
## Original CAGR: 38.48%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 2.32%

## 
## Processing Germany - Solar Panels 
## CAGR range for Solar Panels in Germany: 0.10% to 7.48%
## Original CAGR: 2.63%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.63%
## Start value: 1.11%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 1.35%
## Original CAGR: 1.28%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.28%
## Start value: 2.10%
## Original CAGR: 7.48%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.10%
## Original CAGR: 1.49%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.49%
## Start value: 2.23%
## Original CAGR: 2.48%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.48%
## Start value: 2.77%
## Original CAGR: 2.70%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.70%
## Start value: 3.15%
## Original CAGR: 1.87%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.87%
## Start value: 3.74%
## Original CAGR: 5.00%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 3.48%
## Original CAGR: 6.95%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 7.55%

## 
## Processing Germany - Home Renovations 
## CAGR range for Home Renovations in Germany: 0.03% to 0.10%
## Original CAGR: 0.09%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.09%
## Start value: 45.28%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 40.59%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 38.39%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 37.66%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 38.83%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 36.28%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 38.40%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 39.60%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 33.78%
## Original CAGR: 0.10%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.10%
## Start value: 28.95%

## 
## Processing Germany - Owns a Smartphone 
## CAGR range for Owns a Smartphone in Germany: 0.01% to 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.21%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.21%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.02%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.02%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.05%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.05%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.06%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.06%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.01%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.03%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.03%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.04%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.04%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 100.00%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 0.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 0.01%
## Start value: 100.00%

## 
## Processing Germany - Internet access 
## CAGR range for Internet access in Germany: 1.06% to 8.01%
## Original CAGR: 8.01%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 98.96%
## Original CAGR: 7.35%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 6.15%
## Adjusted growth rate: 5.00%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 4.91%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.91%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 4.53%
## Adjusted growth rate: 4.53%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 3.41%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.41%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 3.20%
## Adjusted growth rate: 3.20%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 2.44%
## Adjusted growth rate: 2.44%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 1.72%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.72%
## Start value: 100.00%
## Original CAGR: 1.06%
## Adjusted growth rate: 1.06%
## Start value: 100.00%

Step 3: 2050 Diffusion Impacts

Step 3 Estimate how distributional impacts of technology uptake affect final energy costs for household across time. Use survey data to estimate how final energy costs increase/decrease with different technologies including in a household (holding all other variables constant) in 2020. Then, hold energy prices static (very large assumption) to see how technology diffusion affects final energy costs for residential sector at decile level in 2050.

I first get the average amount spent on energy, then roughly estimate how much is on gas vs electric, then get historical prices and convert amount spent to gas and eelctric to consumption. This is easier for some data (ex. US ) than others

take a simple model to turn the technology into electricity

## 
## Summary for US:
##    elec_price      gas_price    
##  Min.   : 9.45   Min.   :3.430  
##  1st Qu.:11.52   1st Qu.:3.598  
##  Median :12.32   Median :3.750  
##  Mean   :12.15   Mean   :4.009  
##  3rd Qu.:12.88   3rd Qu.:4.380  
##  Max.   :14.77   Max.   :5.450  
## Data source:  EIA Average Retail Prices 
## 
## Summary for DEU:
##    elec_price      gas_price    
##  Min.   :22.50   Min.   :2.050  
##  1st Qu.:30.68   1st Qu.:3.070  
##  Median :33.60   Median :3.070  
##  Mean   :32.81   Mean   :2.994  
##  3rd Qu.:35.62   3rd Qu.:3.070  
##  Max.   :38.60   Max.   :3.410  
## Data source:  [Add German source] 
## 
## Summary for UK:
##    elec_price      gas_price     
##  Min.   :15.65   Min.   :0.4500  
##  1st Qu.:22.54   1st Qu.:0.4725  
##  Median :23.70   Median :0.5300  
##  Mean   :25.40   Mean   :0.5439  
##  3rd Qu.:26.86   3rd Qu.:0.5975  
##  Max.   :40.01   Max.   :0.7600  
## Data source:  [Add UK source]

Now that we have average historical costs, I can convert the amount spent to consumption at decile level.

## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'year'. You can override using the
## `.groups` argument.
## [1] "DEXUSEU"
## [1] "DEXUSUK"

### Technology model for electricity

##              technology kwh_per_year
## 1     Owns a Smartphone           30
## 2             Hybrid/EV         2000
## 3          Solar Panels        -3000
## 4       Internet access          180
## 5      Home Renovations         -500
## 6        Digital Skills          250
## 7  Clean Heating Switch         3500
## 8 Sustainable Transport         -200
## Adding missing grouping variables: `year`
## Processing country: US 
## Processing technology: Owns a Smartphone 
## Processing technology: Hybrid/EV 
## Processing technology: Solar Panels 
## Processing technology: Internet access 
## Processing technology: Home Renovations 
## Processing technology: Digital Skills 
## Processing technology: Clean Heating Switch 
## Processing country: UK 
## Processing technology: Hybrid/EV 
## Processing technology: Solar Panels 
## Processing technology: Owns a Smartphone 
## Processing technology: Internet access 
## Processing technology: Digital Skills 
## Processing technology: Sustainable Transport 
## Processing technology: Clean Heating Switch 
## Processing country: Germany 
## Processing technology: Hybrid/EV 
## Processing technology: Solar Panels 
## Processing technology: Home Renovations 
## Processing technology: Owns a Smartphone 
## Processing technology: Internet access 
## Final number of rows: 5725

Visualize the additional demand from technologies with our demand increase projections.

#Step 4: Adoption S-curve impacts

I now have estimates of how much these additional technologies would cost each decile to 2050. Now it is time to run a better forecast model that assumes earlier or later adoption trends of technologies. I want to look at how earlier or later adoption affects.

## [1] "Checking starting values:"
## # A tibble: 189 × 5
## # Groups:   technology, decile, country [189]
##    technology           decile end_value country end_year
##    <chr>                 <dbl>     <dbl> <chr>      <dbl>
##  1 Clean Heating Switch      1      22.9 UK          2021
##  2 Clean Heating Switch      2      21.7 UK          2021
##  3 Clean Heating Switch      3      19.8 UK          2021
##  4 Clean Heating Switch      4      19.1 UK          2021
##  5 Clean Heating Switch      5      18.3 UK          2021
##  6 Clean Heating Switch      6      17.2 UK          2021
##  7 Clean Heating Switch      7      17.1 UK          2021
##  8 Clean Heating Switch      8      14.4 UK          2021
##  9 Clean Heating Switch      9      13.8 UK          2021
## 10 Clean Heating Switch     10      13.9 UK          2021
## # ℹ 179 more rows

##              technology kwh_per_year
## 1     Owns a Smartphone           30
## 2             Hybrid/EV         2000
## 3          Solar Panels        -3000
## 4       Internet access          180
## 5      Home Renovations         -500
## 6        Digital Skills          250
## 7  Clean Heating Switch         3500
## 8 Sustainable Transport         -200

Questions for Charlie: do we want to add technology specific s-curves ? Right now they are general. technology specific would look more like this: